Poll- Do you think you passed or failed the June 2014 Level 1 & 2 Exams?

This isn’t scientific, but just for fun, I’d like to see how our intuition about whether we passed or failed compares to our actual test results after scores release tomorrow. I’m trying to get an idea of whether candidates are under or overconfident in their exam performance before receiving the results. A follow up poll will ask whether candidates actually did pass or fail. Please answer both polls or neither poll, to help keep data as accurate as this unscientific poll can be.

The poll is marked anonymous. When voting, please be as honest as possible with yourself (and us) about whether your gut feeling is that you passed or failed as of the night before scores release.

I am currently awaiting Level 2 results and think my score will be razor close, based on the unscientific data of my final practice exam score and my gut feeling leaving the exam. I think I either barely passed or barely failed. I’m going to go with pass, but I give myself at 55% chance of passing and 45% of failing.

To simplify my answer, I actually tried to think about what I would do if I had to bet $1,000 on whether I passed. Then I realized that if I had to bet money on my Level 2 score result, I would bet that I failed as a hedge to my own happiness. That way, if I passed I’d be too elated to be upset about losing $1,000, and if I failed, I would get a $1,000 cash payout as a pick me up. This financial instrument would be referred to as a “Happiness Default Swap.” It appears that pass or fail, my Level 2 studies have definitely changed the way I view things.

In all seriousness, please respond as honestly as possible to this and follow up poll.

Good luck everyone.