- This topic has 28 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated Apr-1712:48 am by
imdnextbuffet.
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Up::5
What do you think of this news @imdnextbuffet? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9990998/Gold-enters-bear-market-as-price-plunges-below-1500.html
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Up::4
Do you think the recent spike in Lead was anything to do with events on the Korean peninsular?!
http://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lead/ -
Up::4
Well @diya, we all gotta take a break sometimes! Not everything is about finance. I don’t really like gold as jewellery, white gold or platinum is nice 😀
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Up::4
According to me, I always put a stance that gold as a safe haven is a long gone past. Buy gold if you like the metal but not anymore from investment perspective. There are other AI where one can diversify their portfolios. From YTD where gold gave a negative return of 15 percent, equities like DJIA, Nikkei, Jakarta, Dax gave a return averaged at 12-25%. Now with this kind of returns if one gets from equities why would one be bullish on yellow metal whose loosing its shine. No doubt, uncertainty still mulls over US economy recovery. Recent IMF report indicated US shall grow at a rate of 1.7% as compared to its earlier january projections of 2%. Euro zone worries continues along with the speculative outcome if North korea declares war along with latest report by GS on the gold stating bearish outcome with yearly target of $1390/oz. The OI positions increase for march in gold as per CFTC which under bearish sentiment opines further downside. Dollex strengthening in due course since YTD. At moment, nothing seems to drive gold up. So smart thing to do would be, if you wanna play the market, sell gold else just do nothing.
P.s. The other side perspective of gold by moneymorning
http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/11/goldman-sachs-is-manipulating-gold-prices-right-before-your-eyes/
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Up::3
I was overly bullish with the resilience of our economy back in 2008, and started shorting gold since 2009 when it was shooting up – look where that got me L-)
But I’m a long term investor, it may take years for it to come down, but it will. Not the most effective nor risk-adjusted investment no doubt…
Sometimes we mis-interpret/ or just mis judge some factors. Having said that, scenario in 2008 was completely different from the scenario today. More than half of the world’s facing some problem or the other, that too majorly with likes of currency issues, macro factors like CAD situations worsening, GDP’s stalled, rising unemployment, no strong growth drivers. So well dynamics at present are not as same as they were dated 2008. We have been bearish on gold with target of 1500 in 6 months since the time its been coming off from its 1800 levels. we re rated the commodity when it first hit our sell target of 1650 some time back. I am not completely bearish on gold am just kinda neutral with this metal though personally i hate gold like anything. But professionally I think it has some resilience around 1500s-1600s for short term
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Up::3
@diya, I know what you mean. I understand the general relationship of gold and the fear factor, but don’t trade enough to know it’s relationship to silver for example, or other indicators.
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Up::3
Interesting article @imdnextbuffet. I always wondered how strong the chinese walls of the research dept and the conflict of interest here. Perhaps in the future all research houses must be independent entities, without attached trading or investment banking arms.
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Up::2
I was overly bullish with the resilience of our economy back in 2008, and started shorting gold since 2009 when it was shooting up – look where that got me L-)
But I’m a long term investor, it may take years for it to come down, but it will. Not the most effective nor risk-adjusted investment no doubt…
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Up::1
I seriously doubt gold will ever drop back – you’ve got inflation to account for, and gold doesn’t experience inflation.
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Up::1
I seriously doubt gold will ever drop back – you’ve got inflation to account for, and gold doesn’t experience inflation.
Have a look at the chart for a year or atleast till YTD you shall notice gold is not been a good bet to hedge against inflation.
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Up::1
Fair point @imdnextbuffet, I guess you’re saying this crisis is a structural break, and gold will have a “new normal” price X_X
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