- This topic has 28 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated Apr-1712:48 am by
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Up0
I have been tracking gold since more than a year and I think now is the time (actually the moment from its all time high around sept-11) this lustrous metal’s winning streak over a decade seems to come to an end.
Well I see it like this, if you look at 6 month chart of gold its been free falling from its yearly high, made around sept-oct 2012 ~ $1850/oz. Well and if we take historical trend as inferences, we know that equities and commodities especially gold are inversely related (as gold has been used not only as safe haven bet over a decade but also to hedge against volatility of equities). So in 6 months time frame where Equities (DJIA) gave 8.65% returns, gold gave negative 11.5% returns and during the same time dollar index gained roughly 5%. As per the reports many ETFs, hedgefunds, speculators have been betting heavy shorts against metal and have started offloading their positions in gold as an AI. What is now interesting to watch out for is the situation in Eurozone crisis as the bets would be reversed if any negative sentiment arises yet again from that area. As far as demand for physical gold from Asian countries like India, China demand seems to be in doldrums due to other macro factors. I think Gold will trade in 1500-1600 range in next 6M.
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Up5
I’m monitoring but not invested in it @imdnextbuffet
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Up4
Do you think the recent spike in Lead was anything to do with events on the Korean peninsular?!
http://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lead/ -
Up4
Well @diya, we all gotta take a break sometimes! Not everything is about finance. I don’t really like gold as jewellery, white gold or platinum is nice 😀
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Up4
According to me, I always put a stance that gold as a safe haven is a long gone past. Buy gold if you like the metal but not anymore from investment perspective. There are other AI where one can diversify their portfolios. From YTD where gold gave a negative return of 15 percent, equities like DJIA, Nikkei, Jakarta, Dax gave a return averaged at 12-25%. Now with this kind of returns if one gets from equities why would one be bullish on yellow metal whose loosing its shine. No doubt, uncertainty still mulls over US economy recovery. Recent IMF report indicated US shall grow at a rate of 1.7% as compared to its earlier january projections of 2%. Euro zone worries continues along with the speculative outcome if North korea declares war along with latest report by GS on the gold stating bearish outcome with yearly target of $1390/oz. The OI positions increase for march in gold as per CFTC which under bearish sentiment opines further downside. Dollex strengthening in due course since YTD. At moment, nothing seems to drive gold up. So smart thing to do would be, if you wanna play the market, sell gold else just do nothing.
P.s. The other side perspective of gold by moneymorning
http://moneymorning.com/2013/04/11/goldman-sachs-is-manipulating-gold-prices-right-before-your-eyes/
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Up3
I was overly bullish with the resilience of our economy back in 2008, and started shorting gold since 2009 when it was shooting up – look where that got me L-)
But I’m a long term investor, it may take years for it to come down, but it will. Not the most effective nor risk-adjusted investment no doubt…
Sometimes we mis-interpret/ or just mis judge some factors. Having said that, scenario in 2008 was completely different from the scenario today. More than half of the world’s facing some problem or the other, that too majorly with likes of currency issues, macro factors like CAD situations worsening, GDP’s stalled, rising unemployment, no strong growth drivers. So well dynamics at present are not as same as they were dated 2008. We have been bearish on gold with target of 1500 in 6 months since the time its been coming off from its 1800 levels. we re rated the commodity when it first hit our sell target of 1650 some time back. I am not completely bearish on gold am just kinda neutral with this metal though personally i hate gold like anything. But professionally I think it has some resilience around 1500s-1600s for short term
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Up3
I’m very happy and want it to keep going down, down, down!
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Up3
@diya, I know what you mean. I understand the general relationship of gold and the fear factor, but don’t trade enough to know it’s relationship to silver for example, or other indicators.
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Up3
Interesting article @imdnextbuffet. I always wondered how strong the chinese walls of the research dept and the conflict of interest here. Perhaps in the future all research houses must be independent entities, without attached trading or investment banking arms.
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Up3
$1336/oz , nymex from $98 to $86/bl.
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Up2
I was overly bullish with the resilience of our economy back in 2008, and started shorting gold since 2009 when it was shooting up – look where that got me L-)
But I’m a long term investor, it may take years for it to come down, but it will. Not the most effective nor risk-adjusted investment no doubt…
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Up2
LOL, why so @diya?
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Up2
Diamonds are the ones that are forever, apparently.
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Up2
wow gold is down 9.24% today. Amazing. I’m sure some of Goldman Sachs clients are delighted.
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Up2
Yup the volaitility is scary!
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Up1
I seriously doubt gold will ever drop back – you’ve got inflation to account for, and gold doesn’t experience inflation.
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Up1
I seriously doubt gold will ever drop back – you’ve got inflation to account for, and gold doesn’t experience inflation.
Have a look at the chart for a year or atleast till YTD you shall notice gold is not been a good bet to hedge against inflation.
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Up1
Fair point @imdnextbuffet, I guess you’re saying this crisis is a structural break, and gold will have a “new normal” price X_X
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Up1
@hairyfairy and invested at what levels?
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Up1
just thought this was interesting:
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Up1
@Diya – they seem to last forever!
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Up0
So does gold….
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