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The statistical metrics discussed are:
- Low mean. Could the average stock
return be overstated? Absolutely. But understating the mean affects all
returns, not just the outliers.
- High standard deviation. Again,
the standard deviation may play a role. These factors are all related to each
other. But the standard deviation applies to all dispersion, not just the tail.
- Positive skewness. Skewness very
well could be playing a part here. The problem with this choice is that an
event like a large loss would be indicative of negative skewness.
- High kurtosis.
Kurtosis is the metric used to capture tail risk. If the extreme events are
more likely than expected, that means that the kurtosis is higher than
expected.